Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
